December 14th, 2009
Posted by Thomas Wolter
Here is this weeks report for Snoqualmie Pass Real Estate.
KEEPING ON KEEPING ON… For the fourth week in a row the markets moved sideways, with one index slightly up, one a bit down and the third flat. Recently, there haven’t been any extreme weekly market moves in the indexes, up or down. Investors aren’t quite ready to believe things are as good as some indicators suggest, but they’re also not buying into any of the bleak scenarios some pundits still proffer. Those pundits jumped all over Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s reference in a speech to “formidable headwinds” for the economy. He was actually cautioning us to not expect economic expansion to be too dramatic. His also said: “…our economy has made important progress during the past year….the financial system and the economy have moved back from the brink of collapse, economic growth has returned, and the signs of recovery have become more widespread.” Why didn’t those experts focus on this observation of “more widespread recovery”? For the week, the Dow went UP 0.8%, to 10471.50; the S&P 500 was up just 0.43 points, to 1106.41; while the Nasdaq went down 0.2%, to 2190.31.
They were probably too busy ignoring the good news of a decreasing trade deficit, with exports UP six months in a row, at a 26.4% annual rate! We also saw the four-week moving average of unemployment claims fall to 474,000, its lowest level since September 2008. In fact, for the last six months, the decline in initial claims is faster than the declines during the “jobless” recoveries of 1991-92 and 2002, a signal this recovery may not be jobless. The week ended with November Retail Sales UP a way-better-than-expected 1.3%. So it came as no surprise that University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment also blew past consensus expectations! If you have any questions, please contact me.
Last week gave us more proof the country’s housing market is heating up. According to Freddie Mac’s quarterly national Conventional Home Price Index (CMHPI), home prices were UP 0.9% in Q3 for their second quarterly increase in a row! And the Q2 number was revised upward to 2.0%! These rises have taken back about two-fifths of the price declines seen in Q4 of 2008 and Q1 of this year. Freddie Mac’s chief economist said, “the home-price gains of the past two quarters reflect improving existing-home sales…. Sales volume was up 15% between the first and third quarters of this year.” He also added: “The lowest average fixed-rate mortgage rates in a half-century, lower house prices, incentives to encourage first-time buyers, and loan modification efforts to stem foreclosures have worked together to support sales and reduce the inventory of unsold homes.”
December 7th, 2009
Posted by Thomas Wolter
Here is the Snoqualmie Pass Real Estate Report for December 17, 2009.
Last week investors were fretting over Dubai’s inability to pay back its debt. Those fears subsided early last week, then Friday, euphoria broke out among investors over an unexpectedly good jobs report. This included the first drop in the unemployment rate in a long time and job losses at their lowest level in nearly two years. The markets responded with all three indexes registering gains.
Friday’s jobs report showed a dramatic improvement in the employment situation for November. Payrolls declined only 11,000 for the month, but they were in fact UP by 148,000 after revisions to September and October added 159,000 jobs. Most surprising, the Unemployment Rate went DOWN to 10.0%, a turn-around not forecast until Q1 next year. Economists do not expect a decline every month, but many feel the unemployment rate will be significantly lower by late next year. And get this–total hours worked in the private sector was up 0.6%. But if the hours per worker had stayed the same, the increase in labor demand could have boosted payrolls by 650,000! Interesting reading. For the week, the Dow went UP 0.8%, to 10388.90; the S&P 500 was UP 1.3%, to 1105.98; while the Nasdaq shot UP 2.6%, to 2194.35.
Positive economic reports on housing continue, with October Pending Home Sales UP 3.7%. This was the ninth month in a row Pending Home Sales rose and the index is now 31.8% over October last year. Since this tracks the level of contracts on existing homes, Existing Homes Sales should continue their impressive rise for the next couple of months.
The National Association of Realtors also predicted sales of previously owned homes would go UP 4.8% this year, reversing the downward sales trend of the previous two years. For 2010, the NAR projects existing home sales UP 10.8%, with a 3.6% hike in the median price. For new homes, the median price is expected to rise 3.9%. Of course, smart homebuyers will act now to avoid these anticipated price increases AND take advantage of the newly extended and expanded tax credits. High net worth individuals are already showing up–in a recent survey, 35% said they planned to increase their investments in real estate. 45% of them contend there are significant opportunities in residential markets, with many bargains to be had.
For all of your Snoqualmie Pass Real Estate needs, please click the Real Estate link above.
December 1st, 2009
Posted by Thomas Wolter
Here is your Snoqualmie Pass Real Estate, Mortgage, & Economy update for December 1st, 2009:
The economic reports before Thanksgiving were packed with housing market data and, guess what, they were all extremely positive! Monday saw Existing Home Sales UP 10.1% to an annual rate of 6.10 million, the highest since February 2007. Sales are now UP 20% in the past two months and UP 36% from their January lows. Even better, the supply of existing homes was down to just 7 months, with inventories down to 3.57 million, the lowest level in almost three years. This puts existing homes very close to the 6-month supply level of a healthy housing market.
Wednesday, New single-family Home Sales were UP 6.2% in October to an annual rate of 430,000 units. New Home Sales are now UP 30.7% over their January low. The unsold supply of new homes dropped to 6.7 months as of October, with inventories at 239,000, 58.2% down from their mid-2006 peak and at their lowest level since mid-1971. The median price was down only 0.5% from a year ago and average price down just 4.7%.
On Tuesday, for example, Q3 GDP growth was revised down to a still substantial 2.8% annual rate. The key item in the report was the look at Q3 corporate profits, which grew at a very strong 50% annual rate, the third consecutive quarterly increase. Wednesday, initial jobless claims dropped to 466,000, sending the four-week moving average down to 496,500, below the level a year ago. Continuing claims are now down to 5.423 million. The Richmond Fed Manufacturing index showed expansion of activity for the seventh straight month. Consumer Confidence went up to 49.5 for November, beating consensus estimates. This tied in nicely with Wednesday’s reports showing personal incomes are rising, consumer spending is up and the savings rate is 4.4% vs. 1.7% just two years ago. Even non-mortgage consumer debt is down 5% from its mid-2008 peak.
TWO KINDS OF BLACK FRIDAY… Leading up to Thanksgiving, we had lots to be grateful for, with market gains and encouraging economic reports. Retailers’ Black Friday exceeded expectations, but unfortunate financial news from Dubai turned Wall Street’s Friday a depressing black, with the Dow losing 154 points on the day. The Dubai government announced there would be a six-month “standstill” on debt repayments for Dubai World, its holding company. This sent world markets reeling with fears of multi-billion dollar defaults. But Dubai is part of the super-wealthy United Arab Emirates (U.A.E.), which should provide deep support. In addition, Dubai’s debt is mostly held by U.K. and European banks, with little U.S. involvement. The situation bears watching, although our recovery remains clearly on track. The Dubai surprise left the Dow off 0.1% for the week, at 10309.92; the S&P 500 was up just 0.11 points, to 1091.49; while the Nasdaq slipped 0.4%, to 2138.44.
For all your Snoqualmie Pass Real Estate information please see the real estate link at the top of the page.
November 16th, 2009
Posted by Thomas Wolter
Here is the Snoqualmie Pass Real Estate review for last week: Thursday the Wall Street Journal reported Q3 home sales at an annual rate of 5.3 million units. That was an 11.4% gain over Q2’s 4.76 million units. Experts put much of the rising sales to the tax credit of up to $8,000 for first-time homebuyers. A week ago Friday, the President signed a bill extending that tax credit well into next year and expanding it to first-time buyers with higher incomes as well as to existing homeowners, with a $6,500 limit. National Association of Realtors chief economist Lawrence Yun feels “rising sales from the expanded tax credit should stabilize home prices by next spring.” That same tax credit bill also created a new tax break for businesses. The bill lets large firms claim cash refunds on taxes they paid going back five years, to offset current losses. The carry-back period had previously been just two years. Experts estimate this could improve the cash positions of big home builders by hundreds of millions of dollars to further help the recovery. Luxury home builder Toll Brothers is doing just fine already. Tuesday they announced their fiscal Q4 had a 42% jump in contracts over last year. And the value of those contracts was 62% higher than a year ago. The NAR’s report on home prices said most U.S. cities saw gains in the median price of single-family homes for Q3–the second quarter in a row of price gains. Prices were still down from Q3 a year ago, but the pace of the decline has been slowing. Many experts feel the shrinking supply of unsold homes suggests the housing market is edging closer to price stabilization. Even foreclosure fillings fell in October for the third straight month.
HOLDING AT 10,000… We’ve now had two weeks in a row in which investors were confident enough in the recovering economy to keep the Dow Jones Industrial average north of that magic 10,000 number. The S&P 500, a broader indicator of business health, was also up nicely for the week, as well as the tech-heavy Nasdaq, which posted the biggest jump of all. The week got off to a great start on the news that finance ministers and central bankers from 20 major world economies–the “G-20″–will keep their financial support coming until the global recovery is certain. Investors also liked the news that Hewlett-Packard made a deal to buy 3Com to expand its networking business and increase its position in China. Wal-Mart reported a better-than-expected 3.2% boost in Q3 profits and an improved outlook for the year, although it gave a cautious forecast for Q4. The Trade Balance showed exports UP five months in a row since bottoming in April. This is a 24.1% annual growth rate, with imports up at a 32.6% rate. The discrepancy makes for a deficit, but it’s billions smaller than last year. The reality is, the spike in imports and continued export gains signal to many that the economy is getting better. Meanwhile, initial jobless claims fell again last week to 502,000 and the four-week moving average was the lowest in almost a year. For the week, the Dow finished UP 2.5%, to 10270.47; the S&P 500 was also UP 2.3%, to 1093.48; while the Nasdaq went UP 2.6%, to 2167.88.
November 9th, 2009
Posted by Thomas Wolter
Click Photo for Info
Here is the lastest information on Snoqualmie Pass Real Estate, Mortgage and the Economy: Big news for the housing market came Friday when the President signed a bill extending and broadening tax credits for homebuyers. Major points were first reported in an Inside Lending Bulletin last Thursday. The tax credits apply to contracts signed by April 30, 2010, that close by June 30. Income limits for eligibility have been increased to $125,000 per year for individuals and up to $225,000 per year for couples. Credits up to $8,000 continue for first-time buyers but there is now a $6,500 tax credit for buyers who’ve owned their current home at least five of the last eight years. However, homes selling for more than $800,000 are not eligible. The week began with September Pending Home Sales coming in UP for the eighth month in a row. The National Association of Realtors index was UP 6.1% for the month, and UP 21.2% over September a year ago! The index hit 110.1, with 100 equaling the average level of sales contracts in 2001, the first year measured by the index.
Let’s be clear. The job market is lagging behind the turnaround analysts are seeing in the overall economy. 10.2% unemployment is the highest since 1983, though still below that era’s 10.8% rate. And because of the economic growth that began in the summer, some economists now feel unemployment is at its peak or very close. There were encouraging signs in Friday’s numbers. There were fewer jobs lost than first reported for August and September. And the three-month average of job losses has declined in each of the last eight months.
Getting back to more obviously positive economic news, the 9.5% productivity gain was its largest boost since 2003. ISM Manufacturing was much better than expected, now solidly in above-50 expansion territory at 55.7. ISM Services has also begun to expand at 50.6, while Construction Spending bumped up 0.8% and Pending Home Sales saw the great shot up we covered above. The Fed’s policy statement after last week’s meeting recognized for the first time that household spending is “expanding” now, rather than “stabilizing” as they characterized it before.
Hello 10,000 and above. The Dow finished above that magic number when the market closed for the week. The S&P 500, which many consider an even better indicator of investor sentiment, was up every day. The big jump came Thursday with solid earnings from tech giant Cisco and a 9.5% jump in Productivity. Friday saw what some considered a gloomy October Employment Report, but investors wouldn’t let it push the Dow under 10,000. For the week, the Dow finished UP 3.2%, to 10023.42; the S&P 500 was also UP 3.2%, to 1069.30; while the Nasdaq went UP 3.3%, to 2112.44.
November 8th, 2009
Posted by Thomas Wolter
Yesterday afternoon the snow started piling up, and it was time to get packed up and off the mountain before travel started to get challenging….ahum. By 3 pm on Saturday afternoon in Snoqualmie Pass there were four inches of snow on the ground, and the flakes were coming down big time. It seems as though we are in for an early season this year, and Steven’s Pass ski area has already set an opening date of Nov 13, subject to more snow accumulations. For more on the snow covered highways click Snoqualmie Snow.
Also, this weekend commenced the ski swap sales, with Redhook Brewery changing their dates and coming to the calendar first with their always excellent swap meet from Friday thru Sunday. Over the last few years the Redhook swap meet has occured the weekend prior to Thanksgiving, but this year the big event came a little early. Hope you made it, and see you on the slopes.
November 3rd, 2009
Posted by Thomas Wolter
Are you considering a second home for vacation purposes? If so, you may want to consider real estate in Snoqualmie Pass. Just 50 minutes or so East of Seattle, Snoqualmie Pass has so much to offer. Whether you enjoy winter snow skiing activities, or summer hiking and water fun, Snoqualmie Pass literally has it all.
The ski lifts in Snoqualmie Pass are usually up and running by Thanksgiving weekend, and you can take advantage of the downhill ski snowboard activities, cross country skiing, snow shoeing, inner tubing, and snow mobiling, up to approximately April, depending on the snow pack. From April through October, excellent hiking, mountain biking and water activities are available at the local area lakes.
Property values in Snoqualmie Pass are at an all time low based on the correction in the real estate market. Now is an excellent time to invest in a second home to begin to enjoy those special family times, and create those life long treasured memories.
November 2nd, 2009
Posted by Thomas Wolter
- For Info Click Photo
Here is the latest update on the Snoqualmie Pass Real Estate, Mortgage, and Economy as well as some nationwide statistics.
Last week September New Home Sales were reported down 3.6% for single-family units. But the supply of unsold new homes is just 7.5 months and inventories, at 251,000, are down 56.1% from their mid-2006 peak and at their lowest level since 1982. The sales drop followed five straight months of sales increases and some observers felt the decline may have come from more aggressive pricing by sellers, actually a bullish sign for the housing market. Indeed, the median new home price was UP 2.5% for September, a bigger than usual gain for the time of year. The average price went UP 10.2%, the biggest September rise on record. Finally, the average price of new homes sold — $282,600 — was only 1.6% lower than last year. Speaking of prices, the Case-Shiller index reported home prices up in August for the fourth month in a row. The average of the 20 metro areas measured showed a 1.2% gain. Finally, we had the good news covered in last week’s Inside Lending Bulletin that the Senate passed an extension of the first-time homebuyer $8000 tax credit, with higher qualifying income limits and adding a $6500 credit to buyers who have owned their homes at least 5 years. Let’s hope the House passes it too. Finally, the House and Senate extended the ability of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Federal Housing Administration to back conforming loans in high-cost areas, up to $729,750 through all of 2010. These higher limits would have expired at the end of this year. CAUTIOUSLY RECOVERING… The government reported our first quarter of positive economic growth last week, indicating the recovery has begun. Yet investors kept the Dow moving up and down over 100 points four out of the five days, ending the week with a startling 249-point drop. Was this a bull market correction, or the return to a bear market? Who knows? The only thing certain is that investors aren’t quite sure the economy is back on track. Makes you wonder what it will take to convince them? The initial estimate for Q3 real GDP revealed the economy growing at a 3.5% annual rate — way better than expected and the first rise in GDP in over a year. Happily, most of the advance was driven by consumption. Q3 GDP also showed home building UP at a 23.3% annual rate, its fastest rise since the ’80’s. Plus, Q3 corporate earnings reported so far show over 80% of the companies beating estimates, the highest rate in history. On the jobs front, Initial Unemployment Claims dropped and the 4-week moving average hit a new low in the recovery of 526,000. Continuing Claims fell to 5.8 million.
For the week, the Dow finished down 2.6%, to 9712.73; the S&P 500 was down 4.0%, to 1036.19; while the Nasdaq fell 5.1%, to 2045.11.
Stay tuned for next weeks Snoqualmie Pass update.
October 30th, 2009
Posted by Thomas Wolter
For those of you traveling up and over Snoqualmie Pass this past few months, you have most likely run into various construction projects along the way. Well, I am happy to report that the 2009 Snoqualmie Pass road construction project have been wrapped up for the season. Most of the crews are happy with their timeline, as their goal was to have the projects complete prior to the arrival of snow in The Pass. We have a few inches fall this week, but today the snow level is climbing back to 10,000 ft.
The construction I-90 Construction projects were: the I-90 Yakima River to west Ellensburg Paver, the I-90 Slide Curve to Cabin Creek Paver, Traffic camera upgrades along Snoqualmie Pass, and the I-90 Snoqualmie Summit to Hyak westbound dowel bar retrofit / concrete rehabilitation.
All of these projects were designed to increase traffic flow through Snoqualmie Pass, minimize closures due to avalanche control, and elleviate the large back ups when closers are necessary. Due to the early cold, wet weather and snow, construction crews will have to complete permanent roadway striping in the spring. Next year, WSDOT will replace the remaining three miles of the westbound I-90 Lake Easton to Bullfrog project. I will keep you posted on my experience traveling through Snoqualmie Pass. For more on this article click on Snoqualmie Pass Construction Project.
October 26th, 2009
Posted by Thomas Wolter
It was a strange week in the stock markets, as the Dow shot past the “magic” 10,000 mark two days in a row, but a freaky Friday hammered that benchmark back down below 10,000. All three major indexes saw modest drops for the week. Some analysts said the seven-month rise in stock prices made us ready for a dive. Even analysts who are bullish long-term hinted we were due for a temporary pullback. We can be grateful these experts’ wishes were fulfilled in such a modest way. For the week, the Dow ended down 0.2%, to 9972.18; the S&P 500 was down 0.7%, to 1079.60; while the Nasdaq fell just 0.1%, to 2154.47.The negative yak was extra strange because Q3 corporate earnings continued to impress investors. We saw what some called “blowout results” from Apple and Amazon.com, while a long list of companies had very nice upside surprises — outfits like American Express, AT&T, Capital One, Caterpillar, McDonald’s, Texas Instruments, UPS and Yahoo! And let’s not forget the strong single-family Housing Starts and very strong Existing Home Sales that show the housing recovery is moving along.Last week ended with the terrific news that Existing Home Sales shot UP 9.4% in September to a 5.57 million annual rate. This was almost twice the increase the consensus expected and a nice boost coming off the slight drop we saw in August. Best of all, the inventory is now down to a 7.8 month supply, getting us closer and closer to the 6-month level of a normal housing market.Earlier in the week, Housing Starts for September were UP 0.5% to an annual rate of 590,000 units. The consensus expected more, but the drag on the number all came from a drop in those volatile multi-unit starts. Single-family starts were up a strong 3.9%, their sixth gain in the last seven months and UP 40.3% since the January-February bottom. The rate of building is well below underlying demand, which some put at about 1.6 million units per year, based on population growth and the need for replacement because of fires, disasters and knock-downs.
The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages, the average contract interest rate was 5.07% with 1.13 points (including the origination fee) for 80% loan-to-value ratio loans to borrowers with good credit. First time buyers have just five weeks to get in on these still great rates AND the $8,000 tax credit set to go away at the end of November.
Initial Unemployment Claims inched up a bit last week, but Continuing Claims continue to fall, now down to 5.9 million. Gloomy pundits say this just shows people’s unemployment benefits are expiring, but a few folks surely must be getting jobs to support the now recovering and growing economy! These pundits might want to consider Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner’s prediction that we’ll see “…positive growth in 2010 at a level that will begin to gradually bring down the unemployment rate.”
Stay tuned for more relevant Snoqualmie Pass Real Estate, Mortgage, and Economic information.
